Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
