Just two months ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
